Auto production and sales is over 24.5 million in China during 2015,how much growth do the market have?Zhang Guofang£¬vice-dean of Wuhan University of Technology automotive engineering proposed during the conference of Chinese international auto intelligent manufacture seminar,35 million is the upper limit of car annual production and sales,Chinese automobile industry has completed arranging the last round of expansion£¬with the accelerating market competition£¬the inflection point is coming.
How much cars will Chinese purchase?This is a hot topic discussing by experts in recent years.Zhang Guofang’s view is based on ownership level per thousand people and update rate of scraped car.At present,China owns 120 cars per thousand people,America 800,England 571, Japan 595,South Korea 372,the world’s average level is 157 in 2010.
¡¡ “It is not exclude that the car ownership per thousand people in some of the Chinese center cities could reach the same level with European,However, considering China’s national conditions ,especially population distribution and utilization of land,the whole ownership level could not catch America’s,the amount is more realistic close to South Korea’s”.Zhang Guofang calculated that China’s car ownership is over 170 million at present, if the car ownership per thousand people calculates as 300£¬the limitation and rooftop of China’s car ownership will be 400-500 million.
“When it comes to the limitation£¬the cars sell annually will be the replacement of scraped car.” According to America’s 6%-7% update rate,calculates that 35 million is the upper limit of chinese car sales.
¡¡¡¡ “In other words,car annual production and sales is 10 million to the upper limit,it is impossible to release this amount in the future 3-5 years entirely.”Zhang Guofang consider that the market potential exists in middle-class families demanding second car purchase or update the first car,low-and middle-income people’s demand in cities and countries.
Car production and sales still exist promotion roomage,what does it mean to auto industry?
¡¡¡¡Zhang Guofang analyzed that every industry wll present an S-shaped curve,China’s auto industry reachs to the top turning interval of S-shaped curve.The fouth factory of Shenlong company in Chengdu,the third factory of Beijing Hyundai in Chongqin,the fifth factory of faw-volkswagen in Qindao,these projects could be the last round of expansion.
¡¡ “When inflection point comes,the age which car sales depends on factors like workshop,land,fund,labour force has already gone,afterwards,the competition is all about overall strength,brand innovation,technical innovation,marketing innovation.”He thought it is the basic trend of car’s development in the future.